From the Foreign Desk: Sir John A MacDonald

The Liberal Leadership Race Begins

While (certain) Americans will be celebrating Donald Trump’s second inauguration, Canadians have their own problems. The Liberal leadership race, announced a few weeks ago after Trudeau promised to resign, has officially begun. It is slated to run until March 9, 2025.

Officially? Yes. Karina Gould, Jaime Battiste, Frank Baylis and Chandra Arya all announced early that they would seek the leadership. All are nobodies with zero chance of winning and no name recognition. No Member of Parliament has endorsed them or joined their campaigns. I had to look them up and I’m not going to bother to provide their biographies, because despite each of their claims to be ‘historic’ candidates, they have no chance.

Over the last few days, the only two (relatively) big names to announce their candidacy did so. Those names are Mark Carney and Chrystia Freeland. If you don’t recognize those names either, don’t worry about it. They’re barely better than nobodies. Every other potential candidate who had some name recognition in Canada and a decent chance to replace Justin Trudeau has said no. They are not interested in being Prime Minister for a couple of weeks (or at best a few months) before going down to defeat during the election that by law must be called this year.

So, who are they? Chrystia Freeland is the former Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister since 2020. She was a huge supporter of cracking down on the Trucker protest, brought in the Carbon Tax and has overseen Canada’s massive drop in economic clout. Shades of Kamala Harris, only Freeland was responsible for multiple poor economic decisions. She also negotiated with Donald Trump during his first term and failed to gain Canada anything during NAFTA negotiations. Her sole redeeming feature is she resigned in December and started the final fall of Justin Trudeau (he and the Liberals had been far behind the polls for over a year but refused to take the hint to leave). She is now running as an “outsider” who will fix all the problems she caused. Something that, once again, sounds familiar.

The second “big name” is Mark Carney. Former Governor of the Bank of Canada and then the Bank of England. Massive opponent of Brexit and claimed while he was Governor of the Bank of England that Brexit would cause an economic collapse in Britain that never happened. Huge supporter of carbon taxes, environmental restrictions, WEF member. Claimed that his economic policies prevented worse results from the Covid lockdowns when the spending policies made the situation worse. Trudeau’s chosen successor. Also (surprise!) running as an outsider of policies he supported and will now fix everything. The Globe and Mail (Canada’s Liberal newspaper) adores him. Several MPs have already come out in his support.

The one unusual note about these two is that both are Westerners. Normally, Liberal leaders are from Quebec, or occasionally, Ontario. Chrystia Freeland was born in Peace River, Alberta but represents a riding (think Congressional District) in Toronto. Mark Carney was born in the Northwest Territories but moved to Edmonton when he was six. Launched his campaign there. As of now holds no seat in Parliament.

So, what is likely to happen? Personally, I’d be surprised if the first four nobodies stay in the race until March. It could happen, as it is a short campaign. The big shift that I can see potentially happening is either Carney or Freeland dropping out and endorsing the other. It is far more likely that Freeland will drop out, as she has (at the moment) slightly less support than Carney does. The Conservatives are already putting out attack ads against Carney and the jokes have already started. Every circus needs a carney.

The real problem is that until a new Prime Minister is appointed and an election held, our most important trading partner (the US) and our largest trading partner (and vice versa) has no one to negotiate with. Trump likely will not negotiate with anyone until a new election is held, he and his staff are smart enough to know that the Liberals have no authority or support. All they can do is burn things down. So why bother negotiating?

So, who will be the next (temporary) Prime Minister of Canada? Most likely Trudeau’s chosen successor. Get ready for Prime Minister Mark Carney, followed by badly defeated former Prime Minister Carney. It can’t happen soon enough.