From the Foreign Desk: Sir John A. MacDonald

Trudeau to Step Down?

Yesterday at 11am Eastern Standard Time, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that he would step down as Prime Minister and leader of the Liberal Party of Canada. Does this mean that Canada is rid of him, finally?

Not yet.

Trudeau announced that he WOULD resign, not that he IS resigning. He will stay on as Prime Minister “until a new leader is chosen”. When will that be? We don’t know yet. The Liberal Party must hold a leadership race, decide how that leadership race will be run and who is permitted to run.

There is an additional issue (well, a number of them). First, Trudeau has asked and received permission from the Governor General to prorogue Parliament. This means that Parliament will not sit, any bills that have not passed now die and no votes can take place until the prorogation ends. The end date is March 24, 2025. There have already been a number of interests groups who have indicated that they will challenge the prorogation order in court. There is precedent for this, in which the British Parliament was prorogued, the ordered back to work by the courts. Could this happen in Canada? Possibly, but I think unlikely. Canadian courts have proven themselves to be very reluctant to go against the government of the day.

However, the court challenge does have merit. In order to function, the Prime Minister must hold the confidence of the House. As Trudeau has a minority government (most seats but not 50%+1) and all the opposition parties have indicated their desire to vote non-confidence, it is clear that Trudeau has lost the confidence of the House, and an election should be called.

If the prorogation stands, the Liberal party has, in theory, only about 11 weeks to hold a leadership contest. Rumor has it that some party members believe that only the sitting Liberal Caucus (Members of Parliament) should be allowed to vote in the leadership race. Shades of Biden being replaced by Harris. If not, leadership contestants will have to find supporters, sign up new members and be reader for a leadership vote within 11 weeks. This is a tall order. It is even further complicated by the fact that whoever wins will face an almost immediate election. Maybe.

The truth is the Canadian media has been funded by the Liberal government since before the pandemic. They, in turn, do not want to see their funding cut off, as a Conservative government would do. As a result, they have been highly supportive of Trudeau and will be highly supportive of his successor. Expect to hear many negative stories about the Canadian Conservatives and how the next Liberal leader has completely turned things around for the Liberal Party and how Canadians now support them in droves. Sound familiar? Shades of Kamala Harris’s campaign? It will happen here.

The final possibility is that the Liberals are not able to choose a leader in the 11 week timeframe, the government falls (or Trudeau tried to prorogue again) and…..Trudeau leads the Liberals into another election.

This is unprecedented in Canadian history. Trudeau and the Liberals lost the support of Canadians in 2022 but have clung to power. There is no one to speak for Canada to Donald Trump come January 20. He won’t deal with Trudeau, as Trudeau is merely a loser in waiting. How will Canada deal with these problems? My prediction is, badly.