So. What happened? A lot of things. First and foremost, the Liberals won, not a majority government, but a minority one. That means they won’t outlast Trump, unless they pull something out of their hats. And they might. More on that in a minute. A minority means that they have the most seats (168 as of today) but not 50% +1 of the seats (172). Close, but not there. Most minority governments in Canada last a maximum of 2 years.
Is this a disaster for the Conservatives? In my opinion, no. Why? A week before the election, most Canadian media were confidently reporting a Liberal majority government. They were also cheering them on. You see, starting in 2020 the Liberal Government of Justin Trudeau started subsidizing Canadian media to the tune of about $100,000 per reporter. And that’s pretty much ALL the mainstream media in Canada (Not Rebel News of course). The CBC get over $1 Billion in funding from the government and the Conservatives were promising to eliminate that. So, if you think the Canadian media was honestly reporting on the Liberals….I have a bridge in Brooklyn I’d love to sell you. Going cheap. Contact me through William Stroock’s blog. Pierre Poilievre also lost his seat in Ottawa. He has decided to stay on and will run in a by election in Alberta. However, the Conservatives increased their seat count by 25 (119 to 144) and expanded their support in Quebec and the Atlantic provinces, as well as taking several “working class” ridings from the NDP. They also won the highest proportion of the vote (42%) since the 1980s. Despite the rhetoric and media opposition, they’ve done well.
Second, though I had high hopes for Pierre Poilievre, once Trudeau resigned, he….kind of disappeared. He had huge, well attended rallies but his message wasn’t getting out. He also fell victim to one of the major problems of conservatives in Canada. He was afraid of being genuine, so as not to anger the media. That, of course, did not go well for him. Any sort of attack he made against Carney was labelled “American style Trumpism”.
This is another issue. Trump. Never underestimate Canadian anti-Americanism. Especially for a Republican President. Although the way it was played in Canada, I would have expected a Liberal majority with their sudden patriotism and cheering of a trade war with the Americans. “Buy Canadian” is suddenly supposed to be huge, but I have seen very little evidence of it in Canada.
What else has happened? The NDP had a complete collapse in support. They went from 25 seats (out of 343) to 7. In Canada, a party must have 12 seats to have “official party status” which means the ability to ask questions in question period, receive funding for research and have their MPs sit on committees (where the real work is done and the real money is made). Without that, they’re 7 independent MPs with no voice and no influence. Jagmeet Singh (NDP leader) also lost his seat and has resigned. The Bloc Quebecois in Quebec also lost 10 seats and are reduced to 23 in the House of Commons.
Where does that leave us? A lot of bad news, but that was inevitable. While the Liberals may have a minority, rumor has it they will try to get the NDP to support them again. This may or may not work, as the rumblings I have heard were that the NDP’s support of Trudeau led to a collapse in their support. Mark Carney MAY be able to dangle something they want, like granting them official party status in return for support. The problem (mostly overlooked in the campaign) is that Carney is, like Trudeau, supremely arrogant and not very good at handling anyone who disagrees with him. Bear in mind Carney was governor of the Bank of England during the Brexit vote and worked very hard to thwart the will of the British people. Expect the same here in Canada.
One more point on minority governments. Although not very well reported in Canada, this is the first time the Liberals have won a third minority in a row, and it is their fourth since 2000. They have won only one majority since the year 2000. This is not a good sign for the long-term health of the Liberal party.
Which brings us back to Trump. It’s not very well reported in Canada, and probably hasn’t reached the US, but there is some reporting that Carney’s company (Brookfield) bailed out one of Trump’s sons’ companies. This is something that definitely requires more investigation, but as it might lead to embarrassment for Carney, I don’t expect the Canadian media to be very interested.
In the long term, I think Canada is in for a very dark period for a while. Shades of Starmer in Britain. I don’t think Carney’s support will last, mostly because it looks like he will double down on Trudeau’s most unpopular and economically damaging policies. Probably a return of the Carbon tax, escalating trade war and I am watching VERY carefully for some of his opponents to be debanked or put in jail. It seems to be working in Europe, I do not think Carney will be able to resist. Canada is heading for the period that the US went through 2020-2024. I don’t know if we’ll be as fortunate as the US has been.
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