From the Foreign Desk: Sir John A McDonald

Prime Minister Carney and President Trump

If you were to read Canadian media you might be forgiven for thinking that Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has Trump on the ropes and is possibly one of the wisest statesmen to ever live. This is, of course, utter nonsense. Let’s look at where things stand.

After his election, Carney went to Washington to negotiate a better trade deal for Canada and get Trump to drop the tariffs on Canadian products. Canadians were told that Carney was a savvy negotiator and would come back having easily bested Trump. That…did not happen. No trade deal or reduction of tariffs was achieved. In fact, several media outlets pointed out that Carney failed to correct Trump on a number of facts. A triumph? Hardly. Trump has increased tariffs since then.

Canadian media suddenly got extremely excited a few weeks ago when Trump and Carney announced that they would negotiate a trade deal in the next 30 days. Once again, a huge triumph for Carney over Trump! Carney has won!

Well. Not exactly. You see, while negotiations will take place, no one knows what Trump will require of Carney and Canada and no one is willing to say. To add to this, it’s been suddenly noted that while negotiations may take place, no one has said that they will be completed within 30 days. Or what the trade deal may look like. It may be worse for Canada, and judging by Trump’s negotiations with others lately, I expect that it will be.

Which brings us to NATO. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was well known for his antipathy to NATO and refusal to meet the 2% of GDP commitment. Suddenly, Prime Minster Carney (who is also a Liberal) has announced that Canada will meet it’s 2% of GDP commitment this year. Is this a sudden sign of Carney taking defence seriously? Again, not really. Meeting the target will involve some financial sleight of hand. First, the Canadian military will receive a pay raise. Go read army.ca message boards to see how the serving members of the Canadian Armed Forces view that promise. Short version, they’ll believe it when they see it. Second, the Canadian Coast Guard will be shifted from the Department of Transport to…the Department of National Defence. They will also be armed (which they aren’t right now). Will that get Canada to the 2% commitment. Looks like just barely. But over 2% is over 2%.

An additional interesting point is that over the last few days there has been a NATO summit in which President Trump has demanded that NATO members increase their defence spending to 5% of GDP (3.5% directly on defence and 1.5% on infrastructure). Interestingly, Prime Minister Carney has acted more like a bobble head doll and completely agreed to this, stating that Canada will reach this goal by 2035. But there is a catch that, once again, Canadian media is trumpeting as Carney slapping Trump in the face. Canada is presently negotiating a defence procurement agreement with European countries to provide Canada with some of their defence needs. The HORROR! Canadian dollars will go to Europe instead of the US!

SPOILER ALERT!!

Canada has been doing this for some time already. The new River class destroyers being build for the Royal Canadian Navy? Based on the British Type 26 frigate. The new underway replenishment vessels for the Navy? Based on the German Berlin class. The Harry DeWolf class Arctic Patrol vessels? Based off the Norwegian Svalbard class. Tanks used by the Canadian Army? German designed Leopard 2’s. Canadian LAV-6s (that the US Marines and Army also use)? Based on the Swiss Mowag Piranha. New Royal Canadian Air Force search and rescue aircraft? Airbus C-295s. Same with the new air to air refueling tankers for the RCAF. Airbus again. So, this is nothing really new.

Will it cause tension? Probably some. There is talk of replacing the F-35 order with the Swedish Gripen light fighter. Truthfully, though, I don’t think Trump really cares. This is the equivalent of your wife bugging you for years to get a new car, then you tell all your friends down at the bar that instead of buying a Ford Explorer you went out and defiantly bought…a Toyota Highlander. That’ll show her!

Far more importantly, in my opinion, is that this is showing Carney’s essential weakness. He understands that Trump is in control of the Canada-US relationship and is unhappy with how Canada has acted over the past decade or so. Put another way, Carney understands now but is trying to hide that Trump wears the pants in this relationship, and Carney is wearing the dress. (Disclaimer – I am not responsible for any images that this may have put in your head. Those are your thoughts, not mine).

Despite the fact that Canadian (and to a lesser extend American) mainstream media will try to hide it, Carney will have to make several concessions to improve relations with Trump. Assuming Carney remains as Prime Minister for long.