Israel to Syria: Watch it, Pal

Israel will almost certainly have new elections in the spring and Bibi is facing a challenge within the Likud Party. Our own sense is that the bell hath tolled for Bibi.

Meanwhile the Israelis blew the crap out of Iranian positions in Syria. This very interesting article has the details. The Israelis want Assad and the Iranians to know they will not allow a second Lebanon situation to develop in Syria. When the Jews send a message, the wise leader listens. Just ask Pharaoh.

As we warned our Syrian friend, if Assad isn't careful he's going to fight a war he can't win and thousands of Arabs will die for Persia.

Exit question: How far will the Israelis go? 

Chinless Ophthalmologist Victorious

Representative Ilhan Omar (D-Mogadishu) and Rashida Tlaib*(D-Ramallah) remind us that eight ears ago this weekend the Syrian civil war began. 

This is a useful reminder of the rivalry between the Islamists and the old line secular Arabist regimes, of which Assad's is the last.

Anyone else remember the Iran-Iraq War?

When Assad the younger took power earlier in the century, we were among the crowd that thought of him as the 'chinless ophthalmologist'. It was a neo-con thing. We assumed Assad and the Syrian state would not survive the war. Yet here he stands on the cusp of victory.

Not bad for a chinless ophthalmologist.

We must say the man has our grudging respect.

*Our Arabic sources tell us this should be pronounced Talib.

The Coming War with Syria?

Here's a recent map showing military dispositions in Syria:

As readers can see, while the Syrian regime controls most of the country, there are, shall we say, very complicated pockets.

As noted yesterday the Israelis say they have a plan to expel Iran from Syria.

We assume this entails operations east of the Golan, around Syrian airstrips, and the Beirut-Damascus Highway.

What to do about those two Russian flags north of Lebanon?

Well, this is interesting as hell:

“Israel and Russia have a shared interest to expel the Iranians from Syria,” said Gallant, who was speaking at an event in the Jerusalem suburb of Mevaseret Zion....

Gallant, a former top general, said as Syria and its allies have expanded the areas under regime control and inflicted defeats on rebel groups, Russia is no longer reliant on Iran and the two countries are at odds over “who will rebuild Syria.”

His comments mirrored those made Friday by the Russian deputy foreign minister, who denied Russia is allied with Iran and touted his country’s commitment to Israel’s security.

Netanyahu and Putin are in close contact and Bibi visits Moscow regularly for consultations. What could they have been talking about? What has changed that Moscow is denying its' relationship with Iran? 

Moscow cutting ties with Iran (at least in Syria) is a potentially huge development.

Israel's Syrian Campaign

For years Iran has been aiding the Assad regime. As such the Islamic Republic has built a considerable military infrastructure in Syria, much to the alarm of the Israelis.

Here's a very interesting article on Israeli operations in Syria these last few years:

Jerusalem (AFP) - An Israeli military official said Tuesday the army had carried out some 200 strikes in Syria over the past 18 months against mainly Iranian targets, a rare confirmation of such action.

A total of 202 strikes were carried out in neighbouring Syria, the official said, all of which involved "military targets, most of them belonging to the (Iranian) Revolutionary Guards."

Around 800 missiles and bombs were used in the strikes, said the official who spoke on condition of anonymity to confirm the details first reported in various Israeli media.

The Israelis seem to strike with impunity. Last week a large ammunition dump at an airstrip near Damascus just exploded. If there's a mysterious explosion in Syria, it was the Jews. 

Israel has a vast intelligence organization in Syria via the Kurds and Druze, two people with whim the Jews get along. Mossad: It's never an accident.

The unnamed official quoted in the article is delivering a message to Assad and Iran: the Imams are right, the Jew is clever.

Israel has fought these undeclared wars before. Between the Six Day War and the War of Atonement the Israelis waged the War of Attrition against Egypt in which they bombed airstrips, vaporized oil refineries and even raided the coast of Africa and stole a new Soviet radar.

Looks like we'll need to ad another chapter.

Israel Strikes!

After President Trump condemned Syria and promised consequences following Assad's chemical weapons attack, Israel has struck Syria. Reuters tells us that:

Syria accused Israel on Monday of carrying out overnight missile strikes on a major airfield, after earlier saying it suspected the United States of being behind the attack.

Iranian forces have been active at the T-4 airbase, which the Israelis have struck before.

Perhaps when Trump promised action against Assad he meant he was going to take the restraints off Israel. Who knows?

We admit to being puzzled, in a non-conspiratorial way, as to why Assad would use chemical weapons when he seems on the verge of victory. After our massive strike on his air force last year, Assad had to have known this would draw Trump's wrath. Maybe it's a test. Or perhaps Assad felt he needed a Hiroshima moment to wrap up the war.

Six Days of Victory.

Today marks the 50th anniversary of the 6 Day War. Those interested in this Israeli war and others may enjoy my own Israel at War.

Basically, the Arabs talked themselves into the conflict. After Syria got a bloody nose in an air battle over Damascus, Assad ratcheted up his anti-Israel rhetoric. In Egypt, Nasser resented the good press Assad was getting in the Arab world so he one upped Assad and threatened to reoccupy the demilitarized Sinai and so on and so forth....

Surrounded by enemies Israel Pearl Harbored the Arab world and launched a daring night time sneak attack which destroyed most of the Egyptian and Syrian air forces on the ground.  Nasser hit the panic button and ordered the Egyptian Army to withdrawal. The Egyptians retreated in disarray  and were set upon by the advancing Israelis.

Assad and Nasser tricked Jordan's Hussein into joining the war, resulting in Jordan's defeat as well and the current on-going, never to end Palestinian situation. Hussein discussed the whole sorry episode in a book.

As noted before, we find the '73 War far more interesting. That said the Six Day War established Israel as a fact on the ground. The nation now had strategic space and the Arabs once and for all had to give up their dream of destroying the Jewish State. Egypt only got the Sinai back after signing a peace treaty. To this day the two governments cooperate closely on security matters.

Before all that, however, the Arab world responded to Israel's crushing victory with its infamous Khartoum statement and three no's, 'No Peace, no recognition, no negotiation.' There followed the War of Attrition, precursor to the Yon Kippur War.