Wither China

The trade war, the Hong Kong protests, now this Coronavirus outbreak which seems like a massive public health crisis...

Others have compared the outbreak to Chernobyl, which Gorby thought marked the beginning of the end of the Soviet Union. And why not? China is an authoritarian regime. Beijing has a corrupt and complacent ruling class. The system is held up by lies.

We think Powerline has the measure of the situation. They point out something we've said for twenty years. There's always a nation liberals admiring say will surpass America. Japan and Germany, later the EU (that was always a joke), now China. Whose next?

Once more an authoritarian system is exposed.

Whatever is happening, and we don't know the truth about China yet, and whatever happens, Chairman Xi is having a bad couple of years.

Trump to China: Eat It

Via Ace, an interesting article from foreign affairs analyst  George Friedman* arguing that the Chinese are in deep trouble and Trump has out-maneuvered President Xi. China is facing existential threats from the Uighers and Hong Kong and worries that the contagion could spread to other eastern cities.

We're always wary of these foreign policy grandees, (anyone else remember the Kremlinologists?) and Friedman first entered our consciousness 30 years ago when we read his book, The Coming War with Japan. Still, he makes excellent points.

Trump is winning the trade war and we love how he signed the Hong Kong bill. State Department flunkies certainly warned him against it, worried that doing so would scupper the trade talks. But Trump being Trump he did it anyway. Why? He's negotiating from a position of strength. He can publicly humiliate Xi and still get what he wants.

That's based.

*Not Tom and no relation.