Trump to China: Eat It

Via Ace, an interesting article from foreign affairs analyst  George Friedman* arguing that the Chinese are in deep trouble and Trump has out-maneuvered President Xi. China is facing existential threats from the Uighers and Hong Kong and worries that the contagion could spread to other eastern cities.

We're always wary of these foreign policy grandees, (anyone else remember the Kremlinologists?) and Friedman first entered our consciousness 30 years ago when we read his book, The Coming War with Japan. Still, he makes excellent points.

Trump is winning the trade war and we love how he signed the Hong Kong bill. State Department flunkies certainly warned him against it, worried that doing so would scupper the trade talks. But Trump being Trump he did it anyway. Why? He's negotiating from a position of strength. He can publicly humiliate Xi and still get what he wants.

That's based.

*Not Tom and no relation.

Trump to Iran: Dracarys

Trump plans to send 120,000 troops to the Gulf!

Sabers rattle!

War drums beat!  That sort of thing always sounds like the Tomahawk* chop to me, but whatev.

We think China is pushing Iran to make trouble as a hedge against Trump's looming victory in the trade war.

But there's no reason not to speculate about what the Pentagon is thinking.

Those 120,000 troops would come to about six divisions + support personnel, air force types, navy, coasties, etc etc. That's a back of the envelope calculation.

What do ya think, a division of Marines and the 82nd Airborne to secure the Straights of Hormuz, reinforced by the Big Red One, no? Two divisions to Iraq, one to Syria?

Or are Bolton and the boys gonna get really serious and invade Lebanon.

As we've pointed out before, that would be a cool novel.

I'm gonna be honest, war with Iran, I don't see a down side.

*Took me three tries to spell Tomahawk right, even though I've been writing about Tomahawk missiles all week.