How we used to Read Polls

By 2004, thanks to Real Clear Politics, it was possible to really follow the polls. Day in, day out RCP aggregated the latest polling data both national and state. RCP averaged national polls and came up with a pretty accurate reading for the popular vote. In 2016 RCP showed Hillary! with a two point lead. She won 48-46. The state poll averages for presidential and state races gave one a pretty good sense of where those races stood.

As we watched the polls come in we weren't concerned with the aggregate but the actual poll differential. That is, if five polls showed Senator Snort's lead at say, +3, +7, +2, +4 and even, we assumed he was leading. Of course it all came down to party ID samples. In 2004 the national party ID was even at 37. But a pollster could fiddle with the numbers and assume D+4 or D+2, what have you.

From 2004 through 2016 we trusted Rasmussen and Mason Dixon the most. In 2004 Zogby royally screwed up, waiting till 5 PM on election day and relying on faulty exits for his prediction of 370 EVs for Kerry. In our mind Zogby's reputation has never recovered. Newsweek, Time, etc were as crappy then as they are now. Gallup was very much in the middle, so was Fox. We noticed in 2004 that Fox was never right, btw.

Most pundits focus on the vaunted Indy vote. Last week Mark Steyn voiced skepticism at the Indy's importance arguing that base turnout was more important. What...? No!' we thought. And then we recalled that in 2004 Kerry won Indys by 3 and in 2012 Romney won Indys by 5. Hell of a lot of good it did them.

We don't read polls this way anymore. In fact, we don't read them at all. They're utter shite. This article by Scott McKay in The Spectator matches our own thinking exactly. We don't agree with him, he agrees with us. His top line points for a Trump win: 1-Nothing much has changed since 2016, 2-American culture is trending Trump's way, not Biden's,3- ground game advantage, Trump (bigly), 4-what is Biden selling anyway?, 5-and he who has more fun wins. Gotta tell you folks, it's fun being Deplorable.

For the record, this blog predicts polls in the coming weeks will show Trump gaining lots of ground.