Notes on the 'Results'

This blog is tired of being optimistic and hopeful.

We are more or less resigned.

We are deeply skeptical of the courts helping Trump.

This was a red wave election except for one thing.

The GOP has lost Arizona.

The GOP is losing Georgia. Don't think that can happen? When we lived in Virginia 20 years ago, it was red.

Trump didn't even come close in Minnesota.

Ohio and Florida are now red states.

Texas was never really in question.

All eyes now to Georgia's two runoff senate elections. January 5th, people.

Robert Stacy McCain has some excellent observations about his home state. He would know better than we. 

Having stolen Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Wisconsin, does anyone really think the Dems won's steal the Georgia senate seats?

We expect the night to end with the GOPs in the lead but with hundreds of thousands of mail in 'votes' left to be counted. You people know what happens next.

In the GOP's favor: Mitch McConnell. Cocaine Mitch usually has things squared away.

If/when Biden wins that's it for us. We'll never vote again.

Election Day Cometh Forsooth Again

We were going to do a post on how we've spent election days past, but we realized we did that in 2016. Click here to see how we spent election days past. We're not quite sure what we'll do with ourselves tonight. It's too cold for a cigar. We can't take ourselves for a walk. We ought to be able to lift weights in our basement. Maybe just a movie.

We haven't watched the returns since 2004 and don't plan to do so this year. It's too damn nerve wracking. We don't think it'll matter tonight because we doubt the networks will call the states. The Dems have already given the talking points to the media. Count all the votes, Red Mirage and all that. 

We don't think it'll be that close and believe around midnight Trump will declare victory. Late tomorrow afternoon even the media is going to see Trump has won. There will be litigation. In 2000 the GOP was blindsided by Sore-Looserman's Florida antics.  But this year Trump and the GOP are prepared. Remember how they fought off the Florida Dem's fraud attempts in 2018? What where saying is, that by tomorrow, it'll be obvious. Here's our call from 2016.

Even the Democrats are realizing their screwed. In a conference last night Biden's people said Trump is 'within one state of winning.' Robert Reich is bitching about the Electoral College again. CBS presented a scenario for a narrow Trump victory. They're boarding up businesses in the blue zones. These are not the actions of people who think they're going to win.

Anyway, off to make phone calls for Tom Kean. Here's our map:

Pre Election Day Q @ A

Thank you for agreeing to this interview.

You're welcome. I love news networks from the mother country and their posh late 20's interviewers.

You really think I'm posh?

Oh yes, university all the way.

Well that's kind of you to say, and I don't mean to seem unappreciative but....

But what?

Would it kill you to put on some pants?

You don't like my Union Jack Speedo?

It just seems a bit...inappropriate, don't you think?

Don't act like you don't like what you're looking at.

I'm looking at a middle aged man with chronic foot issues. 

Ouch.

Let's get started with some basic questions.

African or European?

What?

Nothing.

What is your favorite colour?

Why the hazel in your eyes, love.

Awwwww....

You seem flush. Can I get you a towelette?

Thank you, no. It's just that I'm getting a Don Draper vibe from you.

I bet you are.

Moving on....Who did you support in 2016?

Marco Rubio.

Why?

I thought he was the most electable candidate and could expand the base.

Who did you support after Rubio?

Ted Cruz.

Why?

He wasn't Donald Trump.

Where you 'Never Trump?'

No. I was 'Not Trump'.

Why?

I had policy ideas.

What were those policy ideas?

Neoconservative.

Are you still a Neoconservative?

Na.

Why not?

There's no arguing with Trump's results. He's completely change my mind about trade. I've had my fill of foreign intervention. Nobody cares about policy wonk ideas for garbage collection. Also, the old Neoconservative types are a bunch of losers, grifters, shysters...

Does this mean you have turned on George W. Bush?

Absolutely not. His kung fu is strong. Handling 9/11, liberating Afghanistan, winning the Iraq campaign, five years of strong economic growth and TARP, which may be his most important accomplishment.

So you think he was a good president?

As was his dad, whom I voted against in 1992. One day they'll name an aircraft carrier for W.

What are you now?

Andrew Breitbart, also Trump. In all things, Trump.

So when did you get on the Trump train?

Right away.

Why?

I loathed Hillary. She's deeply sick, caught syphilis from her sex addict husband and is almost certainly on the spectrum. 

Thank you...Moving on.

Please.

Why do you think Trump will win tomorrow?

Why do you think he won't?

Well, the polls....

Honey, if you believe the polls, you must be a great date.

Is that really necessary?

Oh it is, it truly is. Trump will win because of his record, his base, his campaign, his ground game, the enthusiasm gap. Come on, love. Every metric but the polls favor Trump, and even the mainstream polls are narrowing. CBS published a scenario for a Trump victory last night.

But...

But nothing. Listen, sweetheart, if you can't feel the movement, momentum, the shift toward Trump then you have zero situational awareness whatsoever. I hope you don't ride the tube by yourself.

Ride the tube? Perv.

I thought that's what you people called your subway?

Oh...Oh! I thought you were telling a bad American joke.

What, like something about a pogo stick?

Now you're a perv!

Your accent is slipping, love. Posh my sweet, muscular buttocks. I've listened to enough AC/DC in my time to recognize a Geordie when I hear it.

I'm sorry, that's all the time we have for today.

Will Spreads Russian Election Disinformation

 Our latest for Inforos:

Last week this observer wrote that presidential elections come down to circumstances, ideas, and candidates. If a party has any two of these it is in great shape. If a party has three, it’s invincible. With that in mind, let’s take a look at Democrat Party nominee Joe Biden. Joe Biden is a historical accident. The former Vice President stumbled his way through the primaries but outlasted stronger and more intersectionally viable, but deeply flawed, candidates like Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris. When the nomination came down to Biden and socialist Bernie Sanders, the Democrat Party threw its support behind Biden and convinced the rest of the candidates to drop out. In this way, the Democrat Party nominated a 77-year-old white man who has been in politics since the Nixon Administration...

Click on through...

Will Colludes with the Ruskis Without Shame or Remorse

 Our latest article for Inforos:

2016 was a bad year for political pollsters and predictors. At his website, FiveThirtyEight, data guru Nate Silver gave Hillary Clinton a 65% Chance of defeating Donald Trump. Silver’s prediction model was on the low end. The New York Times said Hillary had an 85% chance of winning. The Princeton Election Consortium put Hillary’s chances at 99%. Hillary Clinton was heavily favored in 2016. But she shouldn’t have been....

Try to run, try to hide, click on through to the other side.

Will's Friday Follies

We caught the last 25 minutes or so of Trump's townhall*. We liked what we saw and thought Trump's answers were strong. Of course we're biased. Do a couple more of those and be that guy, Mr. President. It seems to us that Joe gave Trump more fodder for campaign commercials.**

Readers are aware of the digital censorship about. We've been on Gab since 2016, but don't know what good it does. We're on Parlor too, same.

We're approaching The Great Nuclear War of 1975's halfway mark. Lots of fixin' a doin' but that's normal. We are generally pleased but once more are stumbling onto vignettes that leave us thinking, Oh, they're doing the thing in the place now? Oh...ok, I guess. Example: The president's staff decides they need a news anchor for daily radio broadcasts to the nation. Three vignettes later Paul Harvey shows up in Casper.***  Maybe It's just a flaw in our approach to the novel. We're not changing our approach.

Will we have this edit run wrapped up by 1 November? It's close, but we don't think so. Which is fine. Mrs. Stroock asked, 'What happens if you miss the deadline?' We shrugged indifferently, 'Nothing.'

*We weren't really planning to watch, we had late evening dance-taxi duty, anyway.

**According to wraps we read.

***Writing this we thought of a good bridge scene.

Various and Sundry

The Stroocklettes are going to real, honest to Adon, in-person school this morning, something they've not done since March.

We have a weekday morning to ourselves, something we've not had since March.

We're thinking of taking a morning trip to the gym, something we've not done since March.

In other news....

We caught some of Trump's Iowa rally last night. His stemwinder about Hunter and Joe was unusually focused for him. But we're not sure how much voters will care. We'd rather Trump tout his record. The NY Post* is drip-dripping the story. There are new revelations this morning, so we'll see.

Big Tech censoring The Post's story has amplified the story and become a story itself. Not smart.

If Iowa is locked up, why is Trump stopping in Des Moines? We know a guy there, and he said it was a thank you to the state party apparatus. Also, don't ignore your states. Hillary! ignored Wisconsin. 

Speaking of, we now believe Hillary! will run in 2024, assuming the syphilis or Parkinson's doesn't get her first. 

Trump is supposed to go on Savannah Guthrie for a townhall tonight. We think this is a mistake. But who knows? Maybe he just wants to compare ratings? 

Disney has greenlit Star Wars: Kenobi starting Ewan McGregor. This is an unusually good idea. Perhaps Kathleen Kennedy's** rein of terror really is over? If so may the Lords of Kobol bless you, John Favreau, sir. The Mandalorian was shockingly not bad.

We're wondering if we should re-conceptualize The Great Nuclear War of 1975. We've written chapters with themes, farming, the military, libraries, etc. Perhaps we should organize the book by region. For example, here's what's happening in Colorado. We've done that with one chapter, actually.

We should probably complete the Nederland edits and re-read a proof again. There's plenty of time.

*NYC's paper of record.

** Is the force still female?

Embracing the Horror Part III: Looking into the Man

Let's say we wake up the morning of November 4th and see this map:

Here we have a whole lot of undecided states and it doesn't look good for Trump. 

It'll be a a dark time and a time for self reflection.

We've put the guitar down, probably for good. We'll never learn more. We'll never get any better. It will never get any easier for us to learn a song, and it's damn hard.

We stopped French lessons. Two years of listening to CDs, French I and II, and there's basic sayings we still couldn't get right. We dunno, maybe it's our dyslexia. We never did learn stuff good. 

We have Netflix and Amazon. So why is it so damn hard for us to find something to watch at night? We look and flip channels and get nada. To put it another way, we were a far happier TV watcher in 1990 when we had three networks and HBO.  The problem is us, we understand.  But we don't understand why.

We'd rather watch TV than look at our Twitter feed. Politics has for 20 years taken up way too much of our mental space. We'd like to put a stop to that.

How we used to Read Polls

By 2004, thanks to Real Clear Politics, it was possible to really follow the polls. Day in, day out RCP aggregated the latest polling data both national and state. RCP averaged national polls and came up with a pretty accurate reading for the popular vote. In 2016 RCP showed Hillary! with a two point lead. She won 48-46. The state poll averages for presidential and state races gave one a pretty good sense of where those races stood.

As we watched the polls come in we weren't concerned with the aggregate but the actual poll differential. That is, if five polls showed Senator Snort's lead at say, +3, +7, +2, +4 and even, we assumed he was leading. Of course it all came down to party ID samples. In 2004 the national party ID was even at 37. But a pollster could fiddle with the numbers and assume D+4 or D+2, what have you.

From 2004 through 2016 we trusted Rasmussen and Mason Dixon the most. In 2004 Zogby royally screwed up, waiting till 5 PM on election day and relying on faulty exits for his prediction of 370 EVs for Kerry. In our mind Zogby's reputation has never recovered. Newsweek, Time, etc were as crappy then as they are now. Gallup was very much in the middle, so was Fox. We noticed in 2004 that Fox was never right, btw.

Most pundits focus on the vaunted Indy vote. Last week Mark Steyn voiced skepticism at the Indy's importance arguing that base turnout was more important. What...? No!' we thought. And then we recalled that in 2004 Kerry won Indys by 3 and in 2012 Romney won Indys by 5. Hell of a lot of good it did them.

We don't read polls this way anymore. In fact, we don't read them at all. They're utter shite. This article by Scott McKay in The Spectator matches our own thinking exactly. We don't agree with him, he agrees with us. His top line points for a Trump win: 1-Nothing much has changed since 2016, 2-American culture is trending Trump's way, not Biden's,3- ground game advantage, Trump (bigly), 4-what is Biden selling anyway?, 5-and he who has more fun wins. Gotta tell you folks, it's fun being Deplorable.

For the record, this blog predicts polls in the coming weeks will show Trump gaining lots of ground.

Embracing the Horror Part II: The Plan

In 1999 the New York Mets put together a fun team with lot's of likable players and a scrappy, we can do it, personality. They seemed destined for the post season. Then in September they played six games in 10 days against the rival Atlanta Braves who kicked their asses. After that the rival Phillies swept a three game series. Not only were the Mets out of the division title race, they were now in danger of losing the wildcard.

This was an existential crisis. 

After the Phillies sweep, a Met player said simply, 'I'm going to go home and hug my daughter.'

So that's where we are, we thought. That's the situation. We're taking comfort in our blessings.

He was right, actually.

It's hard to ignore polling data that all says the same thing, and it's time's like this that we take stock.

A Biden presidency would effect our life not at all. We still have our beautiful wife, our three lovely daughters, our career, our home, our lake house, our motorboat....

After Barry won in 2012, Ace (whom there is no excuse for not reading, none whatsoever) said it was time for self reflection and self improvement. We think that's the tack we'll take. Be a better father and husband. Be a better writer. Stop being lazy and find better outlets for our op-eds. Our grandfather always told us it's not what happens to you but how you handle it.

We'll be keeping that in mind during the coming days.

The Mets won the wildcard by beating the Reds in a one game playoff, by the way, and made it to the National League Championship series....against the Braves: Here's one of the great moments in team history:

Angkor Flails

Sometimes we feel like we're running around a Spanish cemetery looking for Arch Stanton. One of our close friends didn't get the reference, the uncultured barbarians. We are giving up on French and tempted to toss our guitars.

It is now clear there will be a new 'scandal' every week. Good luck with that. And fuck all, Schiff for Brains says there's a new whistle blower. Angkor learns nothing and forgets nothing.

Interesting polls showing Trump gaining massively with Black and Latin voters, but losing with whites, wine moms, etc. How is that possible? How is Biden peeling off white people? What has he done to do that? He hasn't done anything, so what we're seeing is shy plus mischievous Trump voters. Angkor knows it's going to get killed. Expect violence, act accordingly (EVAC).

Don Surber points out that even Nate Silver says right now the election is 269 to 268 electoral votes. Remember, in 2016 Nate Silver was wrong and Will Stroock was right. Always believe Will Stroock. Data died in 2016. Take your data and shove in your data hole.

We see the Oscars are instituting all kinds of race quotas to be qualified for best picture. Whatever, man. We've gone out of our way to include POC in our novels, we are one after all. Our people come from the desert. It calls to us. We can hear the desert right now, 'Come to me, Will. Wander me for 40 years as your ancestors once did.' Don't believe us on the POC thing? Well, the sun loves us. I mean we tan a nice apricot color. Try that with an Irish guy. And no decent mid-century country club would have allowed us to use the front entrance. What we mean to say is, we ain't white.

Anyway. Remember Colonel McGee, the TN National Guard Commander in Castro's Folly? We made him a Nashville lawyer, and law partner. A black man commanding a TN NG battalion in 1990 is no small thing. We just thought it added character. In A Line Through the Desert, Jake commands a tank with Cueves and Veras, because adding black guy would have been too obvious. 'Ha, I see what your doing!' the reader would have said. Recall the two ship commanders in To Defend the Earth....Why not?

A fan strongly urges us to do Palmerston's War next year. That's the plan. But we plan, god laughs. That would requite a December of research or re-research, to get us in the mood, get the ju-ju so to speak. At this point it'll be The Great Nuclear War of 1975 followed by The Final Storm....which means Palmerston's War would come next and then The Weser. We really think we could crank out The Weser fast. There's lots of good things happening with The Final Storm, right now. We need to do some Crimea stuff, we think, use that to lead into the Italians and set the stage for Esercito Italian. Setting the stage for the post WWIII books is at least 1/3 of The Final Storm's purpose.

30 % Sane means 70 % Nuts

Two polls out in recent days show Biden holding on to his 30%  with Warren, Bernie and Willie Brown's girlfriend each garnering 15%.

Mayor Pete, the 5th piece of the Dems' Intersectional pentagram gets about 5%. Rainbow dollars do not translate into votes. Their just aren't enough of them. We insist Julian Castro will have his moment.

Biden's shows us exactly what percent of the Democrat Party is sane. These are the desperate, the scared, the panicked. We bet there's a lot of old Dems in the Biden 30, people who remember when the GOP won 5 of 6 presidential elections and had a lock on California. They're scared and they're supporting Biden because he's the closest they can get to Bill or JFK. 

Biden 2020's Bob Dole.

The math is not good for Biden. Of course our academic training is history, not mathematics, but we've run the numbers and if Fauxcocahontas, Bernie, and Harris combine they trounce Biden 45-30.

Someone is going to find something else Biden did or said and the race will come down to the socialist trinity. Sorry Bernie, but you're not going anywhere in Ilhan Omar's Democrat party. Soon enough the rest of the losers, we're looking at Bobby Francis, our own Corey Booker*, are going to drop out. 

So it's going to come down Liz and Kam.

We can't decide what kind of joke to go with here so we'll just leave it alone.

*Fiercely heterosexual, as Ace likes to say. Remember, Ace is always right. There's no excuse for not reading AoS everyday.